Tourism and energy consumptionImpact analysis, forecasting and policy measurements

Resumo

The world faces unprecedented challenges to ensure energy security, sustainability and competitiveness, particularly, when the escalating demand of energy results in depletion of natural resources and a concomitant threat to the global climate from the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). Similarly, tourism and its sub-sectors, such as transport, accommodation, and attractions, constitute an increasingly important part of many economies, and their contribution to energy use requires more research. However, there is almost a total consensus among researchers that sectors such as energy and tourism should no longer be considered in isolation. A global approach is now necessary, especially that each sector evidently has its own specificities but each is an integral part of a whole system and can have an impact on the other. Accurate estimation of energy consumption on the one hand, can lead to an appropriate evaluation of the aggregated impact of tourism on energy use. On the other hand, contributes to considerable savings in energy generation along with reduction in GHG emissions when customer demand is met. The approach involves a time series analysis of historical energy and tourist arrivals data, and has been applied to the case study of the Balearic Islands (Spain). The results show that, in terms of electricity consumption, tourism cannot be considered a very energy-intensive sector, and the inclusion of daily arrivals and people stocks in model specification improves accuracy of forecast. This study also discusses the appropriateness of fuel tax when it is applied only in the high season. Finally, the analysis implemented to test periodicity and trends demonstrates that periodically or conventionally integrated process best captures the movements in the tourist arrivals and total electricity consumption series in Balearics Islands..