Employment by sector, productivity and wages in 5 european countries, 1965-2015fifty years of evolution in Germany, Spain, France, Italy and Uk
- 1 Universidade de Santiago
ISSN: 1578-4487
Año de publicación: 2017
Volumen: 17
Número: 2
Páginas: 33-46
Tipo: Artículo
Otras publicaciones en: Applied econometrics and international development
Resumen
We analyze the evolution of employment by sector, production and wages in 5 European countries for a period of fifty years (1965-2015). We have estimated the elasticities Employment/Output with a model in levels (by LS and GLS) and a mixed dynamic model (by LS). The elasticity estimated in the model in levels by GLS and in the mixed dynamic model by LS show values around 0.37 for Agriculture, 0.21 for Industry, around 0.41 for Building and higher than 0.70 for Services. The main effect of industrial development has been the creation of millions of employments on Services, as well as the increase on labour productivity and average real wage of these economies. The results are a strong support to Kaldor´s views. Regarding wages the evolution has been positive, but less than expected by workers due to the effects of some economic policies, without enough support to industry. There was a diminution of the ratio Wage/Productivity from nearly 0.70 in year 1975 to approximately 0.60 in year 2012. We strongly recommend economic changes in European industrial policies addressed to foster economic development and increasing levels of real wages. The comparison of average real wages of these European countries with the United States show a gap, favourable to the U.S. if the comparison is made with Exchange Rates and that both average values are very alike if the comparison is made with Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs)
Referencias bibliográficas
- Daveri, F. and Tabellini, G. (1997). “Unemployment, Growth and Taxation in Industrial Countries”. IGIER working paper no. 122, Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research, Bocconi university.2.
- El Hamadi, Y., Abdouni, A., Bouaouz, K.(2017). “The Sectoral Employment Intensity Of Growth In Morocco: A Pooled Mean Group Approach”, Applied Econometrics and International Development, Vol. 17-2.
- Eurostat(2017) Real-Value-Added by Sector. National Accounts.
- Fair, R.C. (2013). Macroeconometric modelling. https://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/mmm2/mm.pdf.
- Freeman, D.G.(2001). “Panel Tests of Okun´s Law for Ten Industrial Countries”. Economic Inquiry, Vol. 39-4, pp.511-523.2.
- Guisan, M.C. (1980). “Forecasting Employment through an International Cobb-Douglas Function”. 4th Econometric Society World Congress, ESWC80, Aix-en-Provence, France.
- Guisan, M.C. (2001). Causality and Cointegration between Consumption and GDP in 25 OECD countries: Limitations of Cointegration Approach.
- Guisan, M.C. (2004). “Education, Research and Manufacturing in EU25. An Inter-sectoral Econometric Model of 151 European Regions, 1995-2000”. Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Vol. 4-2.1,2.
- Guisan, M.C. (2005a) “Employment Rates, Wages and Human Capital in the European Union, 1975-2005: Econometric Models and Convergence with the United States” Working Paper Economic Development no.83, on line.1,2.
- Guisan, M.C. (2005b). “The Role of Demand and Supply in Economic Growth and Development”, Chapter 1, in Guisan, M.C., ed. Macro-econometric Models: The Role of Demand and Supply. ICFAI books, Hyderabad, India.
- Guisan, M.C.(2013). “Macro-Econometric Models of Supply and Demand: Industry, Trade and Wages in 6 Countries, 1960-2012”, Applied Econometrics and International Development, Vol. 13-2.
- Guisan, M.C. and Aguayo, E. (2005). “Employment, Development and Research Expenditure in the European Union: Analysis of Causality and Comparison with the United States, 1993-2003”, International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Vol.2-2.1,2.
- Guisan, M.C., Aguayo, E. (2006). “Employment by sector in the European Union, the United States, Mexico and Canada”. Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Vol. 6-1.
- Guisan, M.C. and Exposito, P..(2004). “Econometric Models and Evolution of Agrarian and non Agrarian Employment in OECD Countries, 1950-2000”, Applied Econometrics and International Development, Vol. 4-1.1,2.
- Klein, L.R., Welfe, A., Welfe, W.(1999). Principles of Macroeconometric Modeling, North Holland, Amsterdam.
- Krueger, A. B. and Pischke, J.S. (1997) “Observations and Conjectures on the U.S. Employment Miracle”, NBER working paper no. 6146.2.
- Nickell, S., Nunziata, L., Ochel, W. and Quintini, G. (2001). “The Beveridge Curve, Unemployment and Wages in the OECD from the 1960s to the 1990s – Preliminary Version. CEP Discussion Papers DP 0502, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE2.
- OECD(1998). “Key Employment Policy Challenges Faced by OECD Countries”, Paris.2.
- OECD (2017). National Accounts Statistics. OECD, Paris.
- OECD(2017). Labor Force Statistics. OECD, Paris.
- Peeters, M., den Reijer, A.(2003). “On Wage Formation, Wage Development and Flexibility: a Comparison Between European Countries and the United States”. WP 108.2.
- Riphahn, R.T. and Bauer, Th.(1998). “Employment Effects of Payroll Taxes – An Empirical Test for Germany”, IZA, Discussion Paper no.11.2.
- Tabellini, G. and Daveri, F. (1997). “Unemployment, Growth and Taxation in Industrial Countries”, IGIER Working Paper no. 122, Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research, Bocconi University.2.
- Temple, J. (1999). “The New Growth Evidence”. Journal of Economic Literature. Vol. XXXVII. pp. 112-156.2.
- Tondl, G.(1999). “What Determined the Uneven Growth of Europe´s Southern Regions? An Empirical Study with Panel Data? Working paper wiwgee no.4.2.
- UNESCO(2005). Comments on the World Migration Report 2005.
- Valadkhani, A. (2005. “Macroeconometric Modelling: Approaches and Experiences in Development Countries”. Applied Econometrics and International Development, Vol.5-1.
- Waelbroeck, J.L.(1976(The models of project LINK. North-Holland, Amsterdam.
- Welfe, W. (2013). Macroeconometric Models. Springer. E-book.
- World Bank(2005). World Development Indicators.