Modelos de explicación y componentes del voto en las elecciones autonómicas catalanas de 2015

  1. José M. Rivera 1
  2. Erika Jaráiz 1
  1. 1 Universidade de Santiago de Compostela
    info

    Universidade de Santiago de Compostela

    Santiago de Compostela, España

    ROR https://ror.org/030eybx10

Revista:
Revista española de ciencia política

ISSN: 1575-6548

Ano de publicación: 2016

Número: 42

Páxinas: 13-43

Tipo: Artigo

DOI: 10.21308/RECP.42.01 DIALNET GOOGLE SCHOLAR lock_openDialnet editor

Outras publicacións en: Revista española de ciencia política

Obxectivos de Desenvolvemento Sustentable

Resumo

The aim of this article is to identify the components of the vote to the parties that obtained parliamentary representation in the last regional elections held in Catalonia on the 27th of September, 2015. To this purpose, we will use the technique of structural equation modelling (SEM) that allows us to observe the direct and indirect relationships between the explanatory variables and the voters’ decision to vote for each party. Our approach is premised on the fact that these elections pivoted around an issue that has become one of the main explanatory factors of the vote, namely their position regarding the process of independence; and in this regard they have effectively been plebiscitary elections. Moreover, we will see that voters’ behaviour is explained differently depending on whether voters have voted for parties or coalitions in favour or against independence.

Referencias bibliográficas

  • Argelaguet, Jordi. 2006. «Subjective National Identities in Catalonia», Nationalism and Ethnic Politics, 12: 431­454. Disponible en: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13537110600882643.
  • Berelson, Bernard, Paul Lazarsfeld, Paul y William N. McPhee. N. 1954. Voting. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.
  • Butler, D. y D. E. Stokes. 1969. Political Changue in Britain: Forces Shaping Electoral Choice. New York: St. Martins Press.
  • Campbell, Angus, Philip E. Converse, Warren Miller y Donald Stokes. 1960. The American Voter. New York: John Wiley.
  • Cazorla Martín, Ángel. 2014. Los componentes del voto en Andalucía: un análisis del voto económico en el período 2008-2013. Tesis Doctoral. Montabes, Juan y Carmen Ortega (dirs.), Universidad de Granada, Granada.
  • Clarke, Harold D., David Sanders, Marianne C. Stewart y Paul Whiteley. 2004. Political Choice in Britain. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  • Cox, Gary W. 1984. «Strategic Electoral Choice in Multi­Member Districts: Appro­ val Voting in Practice?», American Journal of Political Science, 28: 722­738. Dispo­ nible en: http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2110996.
  • Davis, Otto y Melvin J. Hinich 1966. «A Mathematical Model of Policy Formation in Democratic Societies», en Joseph Benvd (ed.), Mathematical Applications in Political Science, II. Dallas: Southern Methodist University Press.
  • Davis, Otto, Melvin J. Hinich y Peter Ordeshook. 1970. «An Expository Develop­ ment of a Mathematical Model of the Electoral Process», American Political Science Review, 54: 426­448. Disponible en: http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1953842.
  • Downs, Anthony. 1957. An economic theory of democracy. New York: Harper and Row.
  • Finkel, Steven E. 1993. «Reexamining the «Minimal Efects» model in recent presi­ dential campaings», Journal of Politics, 55: 1­21. Disponible en: http://dx.doi. org/10.2307/2132225.
  • Fiorina, Morris P. 1981. Retrospective voting in American national elections. New Ha­ ven, CT: Yale University Press.
  • Grofman, Bernard, Frank Wayman y Matthew Barreto. 2009. «Rethinking partisans­ hip: some thoughts on a unified theory», en John Bartle y Paolo Bellucci (eds.), Political Parties and Partisanship. Abingdon: Routledge.
  • Himmelweit, Hilde T., Patrick Humphreys y Marianne Jaeger. 1985. How voters decide: a model of votes choice based on a special longitudinal study extending over fifteen years and the British election surveys of 1970-1983. Milton Keynes: Open Universi­ ty Press.
  • Hinich, Melvin J. y Michael Munger. 1994. Ideology and the Theory of Political Choice. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
  • Holbrook, Thomas M. 1996. Do Campaigns Matter? London: Sage Publications.
  • Inglehart, Ronald. 1997. Modernization and postmodernization: cultural, economic and political changue in 43 societies. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
  • Jaráiz, Erika y Xosé L. Barreiro 2015. «El perfil de los votantes y los componentes del voto en las Elecciones al Parlamento Europeo 2014» en XII Congreso Español de Ciencia Política y de la Administración (San Sebastián).
  • Kaplan, D. 2009. Structural equation modeling: foundations and extensions. Thousand Oaks: Sage.
  • Key, Valdimer O. 1966. The responsible electorate: rationality in presidential voting 1936-1960. Cambridge: Belknap Press of Harvard University Press.
  • Kinder, Donald R., Mark D. Peters, Robert P. Abelson, y Susan T. Fiske. 1980. «Pre­sidential Prototipes», Political Behaviour, 2 (4): 315­337. Disponible en: http:// dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf00990172.
  • Kline, R. B. 2011. Principles and practice of Structural Equation Modeling. New York: The Guilford Press.
  • Lagares, Nieves, María Pereira y Erika Jaraiz. 2015. «¿Por qué las campañas? Las elec­ciones europeas de 2014 en España», Revista Marco (Marketing y Comunicación Política), 1: 131­-161.
  • Lau, Richard R. y Redlawsk, David P. 2006. How voters decide: Information processing during election campaigns. New York: Cambridge University Press.
  • Lazarsfeld, Paul, Bernard Berelson y Hazel Gaudet. 1968. The People´s Choice. How the voter makes up his mind in a presidential campaign. New York: Columbia Uni­ versity Press.
  • Lipset, Seymour y Stein Rokkan. 1967. Party systems and voter alingments: cross national perspectives. New York: Free Press.
  • Martínez Herrera, Enric y Joan Barceló. 2014. «Identidades y nacionalismos territo­ riales en las elecciones autonómicas de 2011­2012», en Francesc Pallarés (ed.), Elecciones Autonómicas 2009-2012. Madrid: CIS.
  • Martínez i Coma, Fernando. 2008. ¿Por qué importan las campañas electorales? Ma­drid: CIS.
  • McClurg, Scott y Thomas Holbrook. 2009. «Living in a battleground: presidential campaigns and fundamental predictors of vote choice», Political Research Quarterly, 62: 495­506. Disponible en: http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1065912908319575.
  • Meguid, Bonnie M. 2008. Party Competition between Unequals. New York: Cambri­ dge University Press.
  • Miller, W.E. 1991. «Party identification, realignment, and party voting: back to the basics», American Political Science Review, 85: 557­68.
  • Miller, W.E. y J.M. Shanks. 1996. The New American Voter. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
  • Montero, José R. y Joan Font. 1991. «El voto dual en Cataluña: lealtad y transferencia de votos en las elecciones autonómicas», Revista de Estudios Políticos, 73: 7­34.
  • Nash, John. 1951. «Non­cooperative games», Annals of mathematics, 54: 286­295. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1969529.
  • Norris, Pippa. 2004. Electoral engineering: voting rules and political behaviour. Cam­ bridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Pallarés, Francesc y Joan Font. 1994. «Las elecciones autonómicas en Cataluña 1980­ 1992», en Pilar del Castillo (ed.), Comportamiento político y electoral. Madrid: CIS.
  • Pallarés, Francesc, María R. Virós y Ramón M. Canals. 1991. «Els eixos de competèn­ cia electoral», Estudis Electorals, 10. L’electorat català a les eleccions autonòmiques de 1988: opinions, actituds i comportaments, 151­-180.
  • Pérez­Nievas, Santiago y Marta Fraile. 2000. Is the Nationalist Vote Really Nationalist? Dual Voting in Catalonia 1980-1999. Estudios/Working Papers, 147. Madrid: CEACS.
  • Popkin, Samuel. 1991. The reasoning voter: communication and persuasion in presidential campaigns. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
  • Riba, Clara. 2000. «Voto dual y abstención diferencial. Un estudio sobre el compor­ tamiento electoral en Cataluña», Revista Española de Investigaciones Sociológicas, 91: 59­88. Disponible en: http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/40184275.
  • Riera, Pedro. 2009. L’Evolució del vot dual a Catalunya. Working Papers 278/09. Barcelona: Institut de Ciències Polítiques i Socials.
  • Shaw, Daron R. 1999. «The methods behind the madness: Presidential Electoral Co­ llege strategies», Journal of Politics, 61: 893­913. Disponible en: http://dx.doi. org/10.2307/2647547.
  • Soares, Patricio y Rivera, José M. 2012. «¿Qué valoran los electores persuadibles en la decisión de votar?», Revista de Investigaciones Políticas y Sociológicas, 11 (1): 39­62.
  • Stokes, Donald E. 1966. «Some dinamyc elements of contest for the Presidency», American Political Science Review, 60 (1): 19­28. Disponible en: http://dx.doi. org/10.2307/1953803.
  • Thomassen, Jacques y Martin Rosema. 2009. «Party identification revisited» en John Bartle y Paolo Bellucci (eds.), Political Parties and Partisanship. Abingdon: Rout­ledge.
  • Virós, María R., Ramón M. Canals y Francesc Pallarés. 1991. «Influència en l’opció electoral d’alguns factors sòcio­democràfics i polítics. Perfil dels electorats», Estudis Electorals, 10: 125­-147.
  • Wattenberg, Martin P. 1991. The rise of candidate centered politics: presidential elections of the 1980s. Cambridge, M.A.: Harvard University Press.
Fonte de datos: Dialnet